Outside her small grocery store in Box Hill’s bustling Chinatown precinct, Tanya is busy on her phone taking photos of piles of stock displayed on the footpath, replying to customer inquiries. Yes, she assures them, she has that scarce ingredient they can’t find anywhere else.

Asked for her thoughts on the looming federal election, the businesswoman agrees to an interview so long as her full name isn’t published. Though she has lived in Australia many years and been a citizen for a decade, like many first generation Chinese Australians she’s cautious about publicly discussing matters of politics. But then, she warms up.

“I used to believe that my vote would make a difference,” Tanya says.

In the past couple of elections she’s taken the opportunity of her ballot seriously, meticulously comparing the economic policies being offered by the major parties. Not this time.

With her business feeling the squeeze of the cost of living crisis, and no sign of things improving despite the easing of mortgage interest rates, “now it’s just disappointment”, she says.

In the neck and neck battle for Menzies, where the more than 26 per cent of residents who have Chinese ancestry may well decide the result, rival candidates and their supporters have been busy visiting the shops and malls of Box Hill for months trying to sway voters.

In 2022, Chinese Australian voters were credited by experts and commentators with playing a significant role in the Labor win after they swung away from Scott Morrison’s government, including in neighbouring Chisholm.

While a recent survey by a digital Chinese-language media outlet signals Labor will likely retain much of that support, experts caution against simplistic generalisations about this diverse, historically politically fragmented community, and that reality quickly becomes clear in the streets of Box Hill.

Businesswoman Tanya is unmoved by the efforts to win her vote. “They all shout slogans. Whoever gets in, nothing changes. The more you hope, the more you’re let down.”

Clasping her hands together, she suddenly becomes distressed. “You can’t grow the economy by fighting over scraps. We need more international students and investor migrants – those who can afford to spend.”

Then, just as quickly, she’s waving her hands and these thoughts away.

“Anyway, my one vote doesn’t really matter. Let’s see who paints the better cake.”

In Chinese, “painting a cake” is a saying used to describe promises that sound good but rarely materialize.

If Tanya is the cynic, restaurant owner Peter Zhang – who has been running his restaurant nearby for a decade – is the true believer who says he will be voting for Labor. His family arrived in the 1990s, and he credits Labor policies for supporting migrant communities. “Labor has historically supported diversity and small businesses like ours,” he says.

Beyond sentiment, Zhang sees Labor’s economic policies as key to his business’s survival. “What we need most is stability—lower costs and stronger consumer spending. Labor’s policies seem more aligned with those priorities.”

But right across the street from Zhang’s restaurant, grocery owner Mr Xie says security is the issue that will determine his vote. He has seen multiple break-ins in the area, and believes the Liberal Party’s hardline approach to crime is crucial to safeguarding his small business. In 2024, theft in Whitehorse rose nearly 25 per cent above the previous year.

“People come in, grab what they want, and walk out without consequence,” he says. The increasing problem has forced him to display pictures of recognized thieves on his store walls in an attempt to deter theft.

[W]alker Ren, a 29-year-old medical doctor working at St Vincent’s Hospital, says he hasn’t decided who he will be voting for yet.

Asked which way he is leaning, he echoes Tanya’s reference to painting the cake. “Let’s see whose promises sound more appealing – I’ll eat that cake.”

Ren moved to Melbourne with his parents when he was 10 and grew up in Box Hill, where he still lives.

Until now, he says, he has always followed his father’s direction on where to cast his vote. And, he notes, his father’s vote has always been defined by policies that would deliver some benefit to the Chinese community.

This kind of disengagement in second generation voters has deep roots, says Richard Yuan, a media executive and community leader.

“Many first-generation Chinese migrants come from countries where civic engagement is discouraged,” said Yuan, founder of ABC World Media Group. “As a result, their children may grow up without strong messages about citizenship or political expression in the family.”

But Ren signals that as his generation matures, this might be shifting.

As a young professional seeking more government support for career development, Ren says he’ll vote for the policies that directly benefit him and the services he needs. This election, he’s going to be voting in line with his own interests, not his father’s.

“Most of the younger generation, at least all my friends, think this way,” Ren says.

“Things like nuclear development? That’s too far away. But Medicare funding, student debt – that’s right in front of me, on my phone.” He means literally – opening up a link to the Labor Party’s student loan relief policy.

Ren echoes many young voters when he says that he and his cohort are just too busy with work and study to follow election coverage in depth. Big campaign slogans feel disconnected from real life, he says. Even when policies are relevant, he doubts meaningful change can happen in a single term.

“But words aren’t enough. If someone gets elected and doesn’t follow through, I’ll feel betrayed. I definitely won’t vote for their party next time.”

An edited version of this story is published in collaboration with Crikey.com