Agriculture is an important part of Australia’s identity, economy and society, but across the rolling paddocks of southwest Victoria’s Barwon region, the ground is cracking, drying and the creeks that once nourished herds and crops have slowed to a trickle. The declining rainfall is having a cascading impact. For local farmers, climate change isn’t a global debate, it’s an everyday struggle that is reshaping their land and livelihoods, with the rest of Australia also feeling the impact.
The Barwon region is known for its rich farming heritage, but it’s also at the frontline of Australia’s shifting climate. Over the past decade, rainfall has become less predictable, and dry spells have become longer and harsher. According to the Bureau of Meteorology, southern Victoria has recorded an overall decline in average annual rainfall since the mid-1990s, with droughts now arriving more frequently and lasting longer.
Peter Millar, a cattle trader from the Barwon Region, believes he is lucky compared to other farmers in the region.
“I buy cattle as weaners and sell them a year later,” he says.
“I am therefore less affected by drought as I can quickly reduce my head count unlike a breeder who has their breeding herd to look after.”
The increasing temperatures and evaporation are expected to reduce water availability. It is forcing farmers to truck in water and expensive feed to keep livestock alive. There are reports of early crop failure and reduced yields. With many producers cutting herd sizes to survive. As a result, the financial strain on rural communities is growing. Farm incomes across the Barwon region are fluctuating, leading to reduced spending in local towns and in extreme cases, families having no choice but to leave the land altogether.
Australia’s food security, once taken for granted is now under pressure. Farms in the Barwon Region are known for their beef and dairy supply as well as grain products that reach supermarket shelves across the nation. But as the drought continues, national production is falling, and consumers are feeling the pinch through rising costs.
Recent figures from the Australian Bureau of Agricultural and Resource Economics show that prolonged droughts have contributed to price increases of up to 20% in some essential food items over the past five years.
This prolonged drought has caused rural job losses, reduced agricultural exports from Australia and has increased stress felt amongst the farming community. Many farmers are left battling stress, debt, and uncertainty.
Dr David Fleming-Munoz, a Senior Economist at the CSIRO, says drought causes “cumulative and compounding financial and health impacts across individuals, communities and systems”. He says this “impacts on productive sectors like agriculture can spread to individuals and wider systems, and vice versa”.
These unnatural dry spells are what scientists predicted would happen as global temperatures rise as a result of burning oil, coal and gas. This pumps our atmosphere with increasing amounts of carbon dioxide. The primary reason rainfall has reduced in Victoria is the increased frequency and persistence of high-pressure systems over the south-west of Victoria. These systems push rain-bearing cold fronts further south, away from Victoria resulting in fewer rain events during the cool season. Environmental Victoria says, “this drought is a climate warning”.
Climate model projections can provide an insight into the possible climate farmers may face over the longer-term. There is projected to be less rainfall in winter and spring in coming years and when it does rain, it is likely to be more intense and increase events of flooding.
The Department of Agriculture, Fisheries and Forestry says, “further results suggest climate change could make conditions tougher for Australian farmers and will require significant adaption responses”. With experts warning that unless decisive action is taken to reduce carbon emissions and invest in climate resilience, the situation will worsen.
This story is part of a project exploring regional Victoria and the issues farmers are facing. See the whole collection here.
