Australia is facing a sharp and sustained drop in birth rates, and young people say economic insecurity is largely to blame.

Recent figures from the Queensland Government Statistician’s Office (QGSO) show the country recorded 286,998 births in 2023, a 4.6% decrease from the previous year, marking the lowest birth rate in over 20 years.

The total fertility rate in Australia now sits at 1.50 births per woman, well below the population replacement level of 2.1 and far from the global average of 2.3.

For Sunshine Coast resident Allanah Taylor, 27, starting a family is becoming less and less feasible.

“Food shopping is insane, rent is insane, the thought of buying a house feels impossible,” she said.

“It feels quite scary, the thought of having a child and not being financially stable.”

Over the past 80 years, fertility among women aged 25-29 has declined by 107.5 per cent, while in women aged 20-24 it has dropped by 302.7 per cent – figures that might also reflect broader societal shifts and the impact of modernity.

Ms Taylor is part of a growing trend of younger generations delaying parenthood, due to financial pressure, career uncertainty and the soaring cost of living.

Like many others, Ms Taylor is older than her parents were when they had children but feels less equipped to raise a family, reflecting a broader trend as fertility rates in her age group alone have declined by 32.3 per cent over the past decade.

“I’m also just working on my career at the moment, and it’s not on the trajectory,” she said.

“Times are changing.”

These personal worries are mirrored in national data, which show fertility declining across nearly every age group.

Women aged 30 to 34 continue to have the highest fertility rate, at 105.2 births per 1,000 women, yet this is also a drop from 114.9 just a year earlier.

Research fellow Arianna Gatta from the School of Economics at the University of Queensland said the decline was part of a larger global trend – but in Australia, it was particularly tied to the pressure of the economy.

“Modern society is more about individualism,” she said. “Having children is not as much of a societal pressure anymore.”

Australia’s birth rate has been falling steadily since 1961 when the average number of children per woman was over 3.5 – a figure the QGSO predict will drop further.

Despite this phenomenon, the Australian population is still expected to almost double by 2071 to 45 million people, with migration serving as the key driver behind this growth.

“The Australian migration policy will be able to balance that [the declining fertility rate],” Ms Gatta said. “Australia is in a better position than other countries in the way that they can choose more so who they get into the country.”

Australia uses a selective permanent residency system that considers factors such as skills, qualifications and workforce demand, aiming to attract and retain skilled workers who can contribute to the national economy.

“It is much more difficult getting into Australia if you are over the age of 35-40,” she said. “People in their reproductive age can come to Australia and contribute to this decline.”

While migration may help soften the economic blow of a shrinking birth rate, experts warn the fertility drop will still have profound effects on Australia’s workforce, healthcare system and long-term GDP.

“A smaller working-age population means fewer people paying taxes, supporting the elderly and driving productivity,” Ms Gatta said.

The country’s population pyramid is already showing signs of strain, with a growing proportion of older Australians and fewer young people entering the workforce.

Despite these concerns, many young Australians remain focused on simply surviving the present.

“When you’re worried about how to pay rent, the idea of starting a family just doesn’t feel realistic,” Ms Taylor said. “It’s not that I don’t want kids, I just don’t see how we would afford it in this economy.”

For now, Ms Taylor is focused on building her career and holding out hope that circumstances will improve. But the data suggests she is far from alone, and that Australia’s next generation may be the smallest in its history.